In the midst of another big thunderstorm this morning, Lake Texoma is going over the spillway.

The Spillway Cam provided by KXII went offline, so we can’t watch the big event on TV, and I’m not driving from the West End where we live over to the Denison Dam in the pouring rain to watch it happen!

So, I guess I’m there in spirit while I write this post.

KXII just tweeted that all the counties surrounding the Lake Texoma watershed are experiencing flash flooding right now, and other lakes are full to overflowing in Texas and Oklahoma at this moment, too.

As a reporter, I’m thinking about the consequences of the continuing waves of thunderstorms and severe weather, not only for people who use the lakes for recreation, and for businesses dependent on lake recreation, but for farmers, ranchers and plant nurseries dependent on the land and the weather.

I’m thinking about construction projects on hold and local events being postponed or cancelled.

And I’m thinking about the future. When will the waves of thunderstorms come to an end?

Turns out, there’s a new satellite out there giving scientists more comprehensive information and the ability to make more accurate weather forecasts, along with new soil monitors collecting data on rainfall and runoff.

I’ll interrupt this post to say my husband just said the Spillway Cam is back on and Lake Texoma is flowing over the spillway. So, we’re watching it on TV after all!

OK, back to the future…

All the new technology is telling us that the wet weather is going to continue. Not just for the Texoma area, but for a MUCH larger area, nearly all of Texas.

The University of Texas at Austin predicts the probability of a wet summer, for most of the state of Texas is 90%, stating the following:

“The forecast, created by The University of Texas at Austin Jackson School of Geosciences and the Texas Water Development Board, should be welcome news to parts of the state suffering from a multiyear drought.

The new method is a statistical forecast model that looks at more localized data than the larger-scale dynamic climate models traditionally used to predict summer weather in Texas. The new model uses atmospheric pressure, land surface conditions and other factors in the spring to predict summer rainfall.”

The new forecasting model is expected to be 70% accurate, while old methods were only 50% accurate, or pretty much the same as guessing. Now we have 20% more certainty that the wave of  heavy rains will be continuing through June and July.

Oh boy…